Search results for "Benford's law"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Combining Benford's Law and machine learning to detect money laundering. An actual Spanish court case.
2017
Abstract Objectives This paper is based on the analysis of the database of operations from a macro-case on money laundering orchestrated between a core company and a group of its suppliers, 26 of which had already been identified by the police as fraudulent companies. In the face of a well-founded suspicion that more companies have perpetrated criminal acts and in order to make better use of what are very limited police resources, we aim to construct a tool to detect money laundering criminals. Methods We combine Benford’s Law and machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, and random forests) to find patterns of money laundering criminals in the conte…
Double precision errors in the logistic map: statistical study and dynamical interpretation.
2007
The nature of the round-off errors that occur in the usual double precision computation of the logistic map is studied in detail. Different iterative regimes from the whole panoply of behaviors exhibited in the bifurcation diagram are examined, histograms of errors in trajectories given, and for the case of fully developed chaos an explicit formula is found. It is shown that the statistics of the largest double precision error as a function of the map parameter is characterized by jumps whose location is determined by certain boundary crossings in the bifurcation diagram. Both jumps and locations seem to present geometric convergence characterized by the two first Feigenbaum constants. Even…
RISQUE ASSOCIE A L'UTILISATION DE LA LOI DE BENFORD POUR DETECTER DES VENTES FRAUDULEUSES DE BIENS INNOVANTS A LA MODE
2010
Benford's law has been promoted as providing the auditors with a turnkey solution for fraud detection. The purpose of this paper is to show it is not always possible to detect fraudulent sales with that law. We use sales in volume of game consoles in Japan (since 1989), in United-States, in France, in Germany and in United-Kingdom (since 2000). After reviewing briefly the literature and our study design, the chi-square test and the bias analysis were used to measure the goodness-of-fit to Benford's law. Despite the absence of actual fraud, these sale series of fashion goods are not significantly in conformity with Benford's law. Thus, for the detection of fraudulent sales in this sector, th…
Benford's Law for economic data reliability: The case of tourism flows in Sicily
2023
This paper proposes a data science approach based on Benford's Law to analyse tourist flows – being tourism a relevant economic sector in Sicily. In particular, we are interested in detecting irregular patterns in the numerical data that may represent manipulations, inaccuracies or biases in the self-reported data from tourism organisations. The analysis is carried out by using monthly data for arrivals and overnight stays in hotels, B&Bs, and complementary accommodations in the seven provinces of the island from January 2016 to December 2019. We perform the analysis by employing several statistical tests and through a visual inspection of the difference between the empirical distributi…